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Aurora Alert? Where to find more info

9/12/2014: Latest predictions have great numbers for Seattle from darkness until 11pm or 1am.

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 13-Sep 15 2014

            Sep 13     Sep 14     Sep 15
00-03UT        7 (G3)     4          4     
03-06UT        7 (G3)     5 (G1)     3     
06-09UT        6 (G2)     5 (G1)     3     
09-12UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
15-18UT        4          3          2     
18-21UT        4          3          2     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          2

 

Aurora viewing from Seattle, basic info, tips, locations and resources.

Basics:

What: Possible aurora. Slight greenish tinge, perhaps brighter columns or curtains in the sky, or a diffuse red glow. Do not be tricked by the normal red/yellow glow from downtown Seattle.

When: Use Timeanddate.com [1] to convert aurora prediction times from UTC to Pacific Daylight or Standard Time.

Where: Always look North for aurorae. When clouds are predicted over Puget Sound, so I recommend viewing from Lake Kachess just past Snoqualmie Pass, or even further East. There may also be chances from Sequim or north of Everett.

How: A digital camera with a long exposure will be better at detecting the slightest glow than your eye, but once it gets bright enough you won’t need the camera anymore.

 

Tips (from my Twitter stream):

 

Advanced:

When Kp levels surpass 5 it is worth starting to check in. In Seattle, we hope for Kp levels of 6 or greater for the best chance to see the aurora. I explained Kp over here [2].

 

You should watch these forecasts for minute-to-minute updates:

The Ovation Model [3] – a prediction: bright green, yellow or red overlapping Seattle means go outside and look.

Soft Serve News [4] – a prediction: Kp over 5 means possible aurora for Seattle, but the higher the better. If it hits 6 go outside.

Current Activity [5] – a measurement: If the yellow/orange/red looks like it is overlapping the border between the US and Canada, the aurora might be visible from Seattle. Again, the closer the better.

Estimated Kp [6] – a prediction: Kp over 5 is good news. Remember the date/time along the bottom are in Universal Time so subtract 7 hours.

*NEW* Advanced Solar Wind Charge/Direction [7] – a measurement: scroll down. On the left under “Real Time Solar Wind” is a little speedometer thing labeled “Bz.” When this is pointed towards S/-50/Red we have better auroras in the Northern Hemisphere. When it is pointed the other way, the Southern Hemisphere has better aurora.

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center [8] – lots of info in one place.

 

Cloudcover prediction for tonight at 11pm:

[9]

This image should have today’s date on it. If it does not, click on the image and choose “Sky Cover, 11pm” from the table on the left.

Cloudcover information from NOAA [9]

*NEW* Recommended Viewing Locations:

My general stargazing location recommendations [10].

Tonight's aurora, from Astronaut Reid Wiseman aboard the International Space Station. Courtesy NASA [11]

August 19th’s aurora, from Astronaut Reid Wiseman aboard the International Space Station. Courtesy NASA